Numbers Make Swing States Powerful

Swing states add to the suspense of presidential elections

One of the interesting aspects of a presidential election is to see what happens in swing states. Swing states, as you may be aware, are those states that could swing either for the Democrat candidate or for the Republican. The whole nation watches to see which of these states will tip the scales so a candidate captures the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

It can be exciting, suspenseful, even nerve-wracking. The entire election event is much like a Super Bowl contest. There are many projections, many polls taken, and many political pundits elbowing their way into the discussions to predict the election outcomes. It all comes down to the numbers. Predict as you will, but the numbers are totally dependent upon voter turnout – especially in swing states!

Six swing states have been identified for 2020

This year, six states are emerging as swing states (shown in yellow below):
Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

101220 Swing States

Separate state voices are important to the entire presidential election. Each state matters! Just like every vote should matter. The following provides the voting by those six states in 2016. These results underscore the preciousness of voting and of the difference a few votes can make.

The right column showing the differences between the votes within a state reveal how few votes separated the two candidates that year. Will these same states be this close? Will any of them be closer? Remember, these states will probably make the difference of who wins the election.

Swing states suppress many votes

As you digest this bit of election significance, consider what else happened that year. Because of the Winner-Takes-All (WTA) aspect of the election, many votes did not matter. If votes do not matter, in essence, they are suppressed. Here’s another table showing those same states and the number of votes that did not matter in 2016: the suppressed votes:

These suppressed votes were essentially thrown out of the contest BEFORE the Electoral College was engaged. If a vote is cast for a candidate who does not win the majority of the state’s popular voting, it is not considered in the Electoral College. Almost 15 million voters in these six states did not matter in 2016! Notice, too, that the number of suppressed votes for any one of these six states is more than the differences in voting for all six in the 2016 election.

EVV removes vote suppression from presidential elections

Compare those results with what could have happened if Equal Voice Voting (EVV) had been used in those states instead. Instead of the electoral votes all being cast for Trump (Republican) in those states, the electoral votes would have been divided on a proportional basis like this:

Trump would have still carried the day in those states. However, the thing that should be apparent is that all votes would have mattered! Votes would not have been suppressed if EVV had been used!

Another perspective is realizing that this splitting of votes might have been enough to award the presidency to Clinton. That may not be a true statement, however, because if the rules of the game (election) changes, so does the campaign for each candidate.

Do you think this kind of voting result would encourage people to vote? Do you think it provides a more democratic and inclusive voting approach? Do you think it would have been a fairer result, providing a more accurate accounting of the voting sentiment of the governed?

Every state should be important, not just swing states

As you watch this election results emerge this year (it may take a few days), consider the results you see from these swing states. Consider how the election could be different if the voting would be more accurate, as EVV promises, versus what we now get when WTA kicks in, suppressing millions of votes cast.

Then consider your own state (if it’s not one of these six). Your state could be considered a swing state, meaning it could be significant and catch the attention of the candidates. If your state used EVV, all votes would matter! Perhaps more voters would cast ballots in your state because they would know their vote mattered. Perhaps your state, and your vote, could make a difference!

This blog space will be devoted to the election numbers this month as the election ramps up for the November 3rd deadline. Be sure to vote and do it early if you can. Three weeks will pass quickly and nobody nor any vote should be left out!

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By Jerry Spriggs and the Equal Voice Voting Team