An early 2020 presidential race prediction
A political prediction so early in the campaign may seem woefully naïve. Still, some facts strongly point to a Trump win in 2020.
Hard to unseat an incumbent president
First, it’s uncommon to unseat an incumbent president after the first term. Many factors are probably at work here but one is that the public becomes complacent, especially if the economy is doing well—and it is! With unemployment down and the stock market so bullish, what’s not to like?
Trump has been a no war president
Up until this writing, the country has not entered into a new war under this president. He can hardly be called a dove, but his international bluster and reliance on military strength, many believe, is keeping hostilities at bay—so far.
Trump’s base is strong
Trump’s base is resilient, seldom slacking in their support, and his favorite media outlet (Fox news) constantly echo his sound bites (there are many) to keep them going. Taking a page from P.T. Barnum’s playbook, Trump recognizes that even negative attention is still attention and that it ultimately sells. He may not be selling tickets to a circus (though the comparison is strong), but the attention does capture votes. Who says the public only votes for its own self-interest?
Russia likes to help
As we’ve recently learned from the Mueller Report and the recent congressional hearings, Trump’s 2016 election had help. Russia clearly interfered in the election beginning as early as 2014. The intrusion may or may not have caused votes to be miscast but it affected the outcome. Now, we learn from the recent Intelligence Report that Russia is still actively involved and that other agencies, some home-grown, are probably also taking up the cause. Such injection of messages and hacking seeds doubt into our voting system and sways the outcome in Trump’s favor.
The GOP is supportive
Trump has the support of an aggressive Republican party. Even their silence is persuasive. The GOP leadership has been unusually quiet in the face of Trump’s antics, lack of character, and bully persona. They recognize, after all, that with Trump in office, they can individually retain their office as their political party wins. Serving the country and future generations can easily be set aside for another day after immediate profits and personal greed are served.
Moscow Mitch has his reasons
Republican support is increased, too, by the resistance proffered by “Moscow Mitch” (a recent and popular moniker for Senate President Mitch McConnel). He is resisting senate bills that are meant to limit foreign campaign interference.
Mitch is no dummy. He realizes that such interferences, again, helps cement a future win in the 2020 election. Mitch, too, has an agenda. He can take credit for seating two conservative Supreme Court judges, as well as many lower-level federal judges. A Trump win helps ensure McConnell’s own 2020 win in Kentucky will be assured. So, McConnell, being so politically astute, helps spin the political response so all sounds well and entices further campaign finances to seal the deal for Trump as well as for his own campaign.
Democrats are scattered
But won’t the Democrats rise up and counter this prediction? Hardly. Currently, the field of presidential contenders includes more than 20 (who’s keeping track anymore?). As we watch the debates this week, will any of them emerge, head-and-shoulders, above the rest? Will we witness someone who has fresh ideas, a charisma that enraptures and demands our collective attention, and inspires all Democrats and others to follow? Given the shotgun approach the Democrat campaign has shown thus far, I sense Trump is gleefully safe.
It’s easy to predict that Democrats will do as they did in 2016. As Sanders lost, his supporters faded. Not only did they not support Hillary, but these non-voters helped give the nod to Trump. Will we witness a similar scattering of supporters so the Democratic voter turnout will be squeamish at best? I predict it will.
There’s no need for Trump’s vote
Trump will win the Electoral College majority in 2020. He might even win the popular vote (yes, it could happen). Further, as in 2016, the Electoral College won’t even need Trump’s own vote. He can stay home. Given the winner-takes-all aspect of our current voting system (not a part of the Electoral College), Trump’s vote for himself holds no chance of gaining Electoral College representation. That’s not a prediction – that’s a fact!
Equal Voice Voting would make a difference
I could not make this same prediction if we used Equal Voice Voting (EVV). If EVV were used in 2016, Trump would not have reached the golden 270 Electoral Vote count winning threshold (provided if all voting had been the same). The 2020 voting would be more unpredictable given that EVV closely mirrors the popular vote results. Rather than many states weighing in with foregone conclusions (Red or Blue), each would proportionally cast their Electoral Votes. EVV would provide dramatically different results.
Allowing the Electoral College to function as it was intended would be refreshing. EVV might even increase hope among the 2020 Democratic contenders.
I’m not good at making a prediction
It should be noted that the aforementioned scenario is my own prediction. I caution you to not hang your hat on it, so to speak. I’m notoriously wrong, for example, when making bets. My horse picks seldom win at the racetrack. My lottery numbers are worth money for they identify the digits that are never picked. Still, I predict Trump wins in 2020.
Jerry Spriggs & the Equal Voice Voting Team!